2018 Gov. Cup Prediction: Manila Classico, which team will win game 1?

(c) PBA Media Bureau

After almost two years, Ginebra and Magnolia meet again in the playoffs. They last played in the semifinals of the 2017 All-Filipino Cup which Ginebra won in seven games.

This series will only be good for 5 games. Which means the first game is much important. Ginebra ended up with the #1 seed in this conference but they only have a single win lead from Magnolia. 

Which team will get an early advantage? Let us see. 

Prediction

Key Match-up: Rafi Reavis VS Greg Slaughter
Key Stats: Rebounds

In a surprising way, Ginebra averaged more three-pointers made than Magnolia in the elimination round. Comparing the talents though will tell us that Magnolia is a better shooting team than Ginebra.

Rafi Reavis is vital for Magnolia in this match-up. He is their best big next to Ian Sangalang. There is no way Rafi will not play around 25 minutes in this game. His main job? Protect the rim.

And that job will not be easy because he will be fending-off the biggest player and the tallest athlete in the league. 

Greg Slaughter's job is to maximize their size advantage by scoring in the paint and controlling the rebound.

In terms of rebound, Magnolia ended up averaging 2.9 more boards than Ginebra. But in their elimination game, Ginebra won the rebounding battle by 2. 

With what I saw in their elimination game, I do not trust the coaching staff of Magnolia to come up with a good strategy for the 1st game of the series. Ginebra will win this one and it may even be a beatdown.