The second semifinals match-up is as intriguing as the first one. Meralco will again have a chance to take a playoff-series from Ginebra and reach their first-ever Philippine Cup finals. On the other hand, Ginebra is looking to win its first Philippine Cup title for almost two decades.
So, let us predict this series by looking at these three aspects:
#1 Team Stats
#2 Rosters
#3 Scheme, Momentum and others
If you are looking for a high scoring affair, this will not be the series for you. You better watch the other series between TNT and Phoenix. What we will witness though are two high-quality passing teams. Both squads are top-5 in assists.
Although, Ginebra is clearly the better defensive team. Being #12 in Opponent Midrange Scoring is fine because it is the least efficient shot in basketball and letting your opponent take as many as they want is actually a good strategy.
On the other hand, the inside scoring of Ginebra could be crucial. Meralco defends the rim pretty well. Will it work against Ginebra?
Overall, I think the numbers are pointing more to Ginebra than Meralco.
Ginebra is clearly the favorite in this match-up. Newsome and Quinto are slowly making a name for themselves but Pringle and Thompson have established their quality. Hodge and Caperal bring different things to the table. Almazan and Aguilar could be a toss-up but Japeth is currently playing way better than Raymond. I think, the only match-up that we can give to Meralco is the Amer-Tenorio because of Tenorio's age. Bench wise though, I think Meralco wins it because theirs is more versatile and skilled than that of Ginebra.
Overall though, Ginebra has a way better line-up than that of Meralco.
#3 Scheme, Momentum and others
The reality is, both coaches are familiar already with the other tactics and strategies. Actually, even the players should be well aware now of what the other teams will do, knowing that they have a lot of history against each other.
In terms of momentum, I believe Meralco has more because they are still looking for their first-ever championship. In terms of health, I have read about more issues around Ginebra than that of Meralco. Also, Ginebra has not succeeded with Justin Brownlee. Now, they also do not have Greg Slaughter and LA Tenorio is playing below 100%.
Prediction
It is clear to me that for Meralco to win, Almazan should be able to play all games. Also, Newsome should continue his streak of good crunchtime performance. Overall though, it is obvious to me that Ginebra has way more paths to a series-victory than that of Meralco.
So, I am going with Ginebra.
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