Finally, the PBA Philippine Cup has reached its semifinals!
So, here am I again to give you a full statistical preview and my winner prediction.
In the first match, we will witness TNT that will try to get back to the Philippine Cup finals against an up-and-coming Phoenix Super LPG.
I am pretty sure that the series itself will be interesting but I bet that the brewing feud between Calvin Abueva and Bobby Ray Parks is as intriguing.
We will preview the series by looking at three aspects:
#1 Team Stats
#2 Line-up
#3 Scheme, Momentum and others
#1 TEAM STATS
Just by looking at the numbers, it is pretty clear that we are looking at two high-powered offensive teams. Both squads are top 2 in terms of scoring. Both teams also rely heavily on their three-point shooting. Although, Phoenix is way better because they are efficient. Defensively, TNT is better overall. Actually, we can say that Phoenix is a bad defensive team while TNT is around above average. But, Phoenix is good in defending three-point shot. That though is not enough to balance it out.
Thus, in terms of team stats, I think TNT has the clear advantage.
#2 LINE-UP
CORE 5 Match-ups
Castro VS Jazul
Pogoy VS Wright
Parks VS Parks
Rosario VS Perkins
Erram VS Chua
Bench
Reyes, Semerad, De Leon, Washington
VS
Garcia, Intal, Mallari, Reyes
In terms of the roster, it is pretty obvious that TNT is more talented. Castro is of course better than Jazul. Same case for Erram over Chua. Wright could be chosen by more people because he is a very good scorer but I think Pogoy is actually a better overall player. Rosario and Perkins can be a toss-up.
Parks versus Abueva is interesting because Abueva brings several things to the table. Parks could be a better scorer and even an off-ball defender but Abueva's rebounding and playmaking is way better.
And for the bench, I think we can also give it a tie as both teams have versatile players that helped them adjust through a game.
Overall though, it is clear that TNT is better in terms of performance.
#3 Scheme, Momentum and others
If we look at their numbers during their elimination game, TNT dominated them by controlling the rebound and scoring a lot on the paint. But, that game is not that useful because Calvin Abueva was not yet there.
But, the thing that stands out to me was the fact that TNT shot poorly from beyond the arc. In short, Phoenix has the perfect defensive scheme for TNT's barrage of long bombs. On the other hand, TNT does have the defensive system and personnel to really take away the paint from Phoenix.
Although, I think TNT is way more determined to survive this round because they have been failing a lot in the past. While Phoenix is a young up-and-coming team that may feel already successful with this semis appearance.
PREDICTION
Numbers do not lie, TNT has more paths in winning this series. The way I look at it, the best path for Phoenix to get the series-victory is for their three-point shooting to be red hot, all throughout the series.
But, I will not count on that. So, I am going with TNT.
By the way, here is my current run in my prediction for the playoffs.
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