The semifinals of the 2024 PBA Commissioners Cup can only be described as a David VS Goliath type of narrative.
Phoenix Super LPG is the only squad that is not part of the San Miguel Corporation. They will battle first the top seed but the least successful SMC franchise, Magnolia.
If they survived that, they will need to overcome one of the two most loaded and experienced team in the league, Ginebra or San Miguel.
So, it is time to predict!
Magnolia VS Phoenix
X FACTORS
Jason Perkins
Experience
Free-throw shooting
My heart is telling me that it will be Phoenix. But of course, we need to assess this objectively. I expect this to be a grinding series. Thus, free-throw accuracy will be crucial. This is the weakness of Johnathan Williams. If he can be at acceptable level of accuracy, Phoenix will be at a better position.
Magnolia clearly has a wide advantage in terms of experience. Phoenix should thanks Meralco for giving them a hell of a two-game series in the quarterfinals. Can Phoenix close the gap? Or the experience of Magnolia will be too much.
I expect the two imports to neutralize each other. They are the frontrunner for the Best Import Award for a reason. Now, Magnolia has the clear size advantage. Phoenix can actually neutralize that if Jason will outskill the big Cs of Magnolia.
Prediction:
There is a path for Phoenix to win this. But, it is just hard to trust them with a lot of things and put them as the choice for this prediction. I think Magnolia will manage to sustain their advantages and win this series. A five-game bloodbath of a series will not be shocking though.
Ginebra VS San Miguel
X FACTORS
Three-point Shooting
Jamie Malonzo
Health
Even though we have seen this playoff match-up over and over again, let us still recognize that it is fun with the high level of talent involve. Thus, health will be crucial for both parties. I think, a major injury could tilt this series easily.
San Miguel has better outside shooting in this tournament with Boatwright leading them. Ginebra averaged the second least amount of three-pointers made per game and they are worst in defending it. But, San Miguel is giving up the most!
Looking at the player match-ups, I expect Malonzo to take the role of stopping Boatwright. He can also end up as a match-up nightmare on offense if he plays well.
Prediction
This is not an easy prediction because Boatwright is an amazing fit next to Fajardo. I think, they have the outside shooting to win this. But, I can see a breakout series from Malonzo. And I trust the health of Ginebra more than San Miguel.
So, by a hair, I will predict the Beermen to win this series.
Recent Prediction: PBA Playoffs Prediction: Ginebra and SMB will have a quick trip to SEMIS?
Comments
Post a Comment