Meralco-Ginebra Game 1 Prediction: Joe Devance is the key

I don’t think anyone took a bet for a Finals rematch at the start of the Governors’ Cup. But, fortunately, both teams did their part and reached the pinnacle of the conference. 
Ginebra will try to get a back-to-back title. Meralco will try not to be the bridesmaid again to the #1 ball club in the country. 

In this year’s Governors Cup, Meralco is the best defensive team, as Ginebra scored the fifth most points and gave up the four least points per game. 

So, this is a battle of an elite defense against an elite balance squad.



KEY FACTORS
3rd Quarter
Free-throw Shooting
Joe Devance

In their game in the elimination round, Meralco Bolts completed a stunning comeback against Ginebra who has an 11 points lead entering the 2nd quarter. The turnaround happened in the 3rd quarter, when the Bolts pumped 29 points and shackled Ginebra to 12.
That quarter will again be vital in game 1. No matter if the game will be close at the half or if one of them has the lead, I expect massive adjustments to be done. Both coaches knows the importance of game 1 in a series. So, don’t expect them to be conservative. 
Meralco Bolts is the best free-throw shooting team in the league. Ginebra is the worst. The importance of free-throw shooting is always magnified in the playoffs. The size advantage of Ginebra could mean more post touches that should result to a lot of shooting fouls. 
On the other hand, Meralco may try to challenge the huge frontcourt of their enemy and net as many fouls as possible. Knocking the freebies that comes with it will be the key. 
Between Joe Devance and Jared Dillinger, expect Joe to be more impactful. Meralco is the smaller squad but they have a lot of versatile players. Coach Tim may need to use Devance than normal to counter that. 

PREDICTION
I don’t expect a close game. With what I saw in the semifinals, I think both teams are at their peak. With more weapons in his arsenal, I expect Ginebra to come away with the first W. I think, Meralco will not succeed in limiting the impact of Joe Devance in this game.