San Miguel will not win the Championship because...

If my memory serves me right, this is already the fifth straight season, that almost all of us, anticipated San Miguel Beermen to win the crown. If they manage to do it again this year, that will be their fourth straight.

With the way they played in the elimination, do anyone really have the guts to bet against them? 

They have the best player in the league in June Mar Fajardo. They have one of the most lethal crunchtime scorer in Alex Cabagnot. Arwind Santos is having his last hurrah with his 17.3 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists production. And don't forget about one of the best shooter in the league, Marcio Lassiter, who is unloading 2.7 threes per game.

So, are their reasons out there, to bet against them? 

I have two.

San Miguel only have two losses so far. They were against Brgy. Ginebra San Miguel and Blackwater Elite.

I checked those games and I saw reasons of hope for the other contenders.

#1 FATIGUE 

Yeah. You have heard about this before. All the members of their powerhouse starting five is playing more than 34 minutes per game. With the two Gilas games under his belt, Fajardo is working at his peak.

Then consider the fact that coach Leo Austria will not tone down his minutes distribution, we can expect Fajardo to be tired, deeper into the playoffs. 

Fatigue will pump the risk of an injury. And if one of the starting five get sidelined, the door will open for the other contenders. 

#2 THEY ARE NOT A COHESIVE UNIT

Ross, Fajardo, Santos, Lassiter and Cabagnot has been the longest surviving starting five in this era. And yet, their connection to each other is still not on magical level. They only assisted 38.4% of their made shot on those two losses.

That is an awful mark! 

How was that possible, when they have the best Assist man in Ross and another elite PG in Cabagnot? 

They run a lot of quick isolation plays. Those isolation plays are working well, because they have talented players. But, what happened on their two losses? 

They never found their groove. Why? Because Blackwater and Ginebra are credible team defenders and they have good one-on-one stoppers, both inside and outside.

Once majority of those five were on a bad night, you can expect their offense to collapse. 

So what is the conclusion? 

Teams who can play consistent defense against them will always have a chance.

I can really see San Miguel, failing to defend their crown if they meet a capable one-on-one defensive team in the semifinals and another top stopping squad in the penultimate round.