(c) PBA Media Bureau
Finally, we reached the playoffs after a very quick elimination round of the 2020 PBA Philippine Cup!
For the first day of playoffs competition, we will see if San Miguel and Ginebra can manage to punch-in their semifinals ticket right away against Meralco and Rain or Shine, respectively.
So, it is time for me to provide my series analysis and prediction. The numbers will be provided for you to have your own analysis.
In our first game, we will see if San Miguel can reach the semifinals even without Fajardo and Romeo.
As you can see by their numbers, we are looking at two middling teams.
San Miguel is a much better scoring team. While Meralco is the better defensive team. Although Offensive and Defensive Rating are telling us a different story.
Nevertheless, Meralco is looking better in terms of numbers as San Miguel is actually not that good in terms of limiting opponents in scoring on the paint and from beyond the arc.
The interesting thing about Meralco is the fact that they rely heavily on their midrange scoring, which is the least efficient shot in basketball. The volatility of midrange scoring makes me less confident about the chances of Meralco winning two games. What is good though is that they are a better rebounding team that can compensate for it.
PREDICTION
If I am only predicting tomorrow's game, I will go with Meralco because of what the numbers are telling us. Also, their elimination round game was very close that the 4/16 free-throw shooting of Meralco was a big determinant factor.
But, I expect San Miguel to win the 2nd game as Meralco's offense is not that complicated to defend for the Beermen. Also, their elimination game tells us that Meralco has a hard time defending Tautuaa and Tautuaa is still picking up steam. Unless Almazan suddenly morphed into his elite form, San Miguel should be the pick here.
This a very interesting match-up. Rain or Shine has this plethora of bigs that could really challenge the thin frontline rotation of Ginebra.
Offensively, Ginebra is really a well-run team. Being top 5 in assists, 3FG% and Offensive Rating speaks a lot about the fluidity of what they are doing.
On the other hand Rain or Shine is a pretty unique team. Ranking last in Points, 3FG%, Assists and Offensive Rating does not mean that they are the worst offensive team in the league.
Why?
Because they are playing at the slowest pace. It is part of their DNA. Even Ginebra who is averaging 93 points, was limited to 82 points by the scheme of Rain or Shine.
It is arguable that Ginebra is a top 3 offensive team this year while Rain or Shine is a top 3 defensive team.
One thing though that Ginebra fans should be worried about is the truthfulness of the current 3FG% of their favorite team. Looking at the history of their current players, I will not be shocked if their shooting will go down in this playoffs.
The question now is, Can Rain or Shine win back-to-back against them?
PREDICTION
I think the answer is yes. The twice-to-beat advantage is really huge for Ginebra as it gives their excellent coaching staff a chance to adjust if they will fail in game 1.
But I do wonder if Ginebra players can really adjust right away to the snail-pace of Rain or Shine. One guy that could be the one that will make my prediction wrong, is Japeth Aguilar.
If he shows that he can be excellent against the physical and gritty bigs of Rain or Shine in this series like Beau Belga, they will win this series.
Overall, I am also counting on the possibility that Rain or Shine is just shooting badly in the elimination round and that they are now rounding into form. Lastly, I expect Rain or Shine to exhibit that their chemistry is way better than that of Ginebra.
Combine all of those and I am choosing Rain or Shine to win back-to-back games and get themselves into the Semifinals.
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By the way, here is my performance last conference plus my overall record.
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