2020 PBA Quarterfinals Prediction: Upset Alert? Can Magnolia and Alaska overcome twice-to-beat disadvantage?

 For the second set of our quarterfinals, Phoenix and TNT will try to form a mouth-watering semifinals match-up. Will Alaska and Magnolia agree to that?

This match-up is really interesting because they are the two teams on the extreme of the offensive spectrum.

As you can see by the numbers, TNT, is one of, if not the team that is most addicted to three-point shooting. On the other hand, Alaska is shooting the least amount of three-pointers and they rely heavily on their inside scoring.

Their three-point efficiency tells us how high the volume of the three-point shot, TNT is attempting. And that Alaska is attempting a low amount of threes.

So, it is crucial then to see that Alaska is the worst team in terms of opponent three-point shooting. That means, there is a good chance that they will have a hard time defending TNT from beyond the arc.

On the other hand, TNT is fine in defending inside points. And it is good to take note that TNT has a much bigger line-up. 

PREDICTION

The twice-to-beat edge of TNT is a huge advantage. I will not be shocked if TNT will win a similar game as their elimination round. Wherein they shot a lot of three-pointers and outrebounded Alaska.

Also, looking at their line-up, I do not think Alaska has the depth to keep up with TNT's firepower. Especially the tandem of Ray Parks and RR Pogoy.

This is the most interesting match-up in my mind because Phoenix is a new kid on the block. While Magnolia has been a perennial contender.

Phoenix has been an amazing outside scoring team, combining great three-point efficiency and volume. There is no doubt in my mind that if they want to go deep in this playoffs, they need to hit their long bombs.

Magnolia remains to be an unmovable fortress on the defensive end as shown by their excellent defensive rating and their rim protection.

Looking at the numbers, Magnolia fans should be worried that their team is only average in terms of stopping three-point shots. It also does not help that Phoenix is a better rebounding team. 

Also, Magnolia relies heavily on its midrange shot. Midrange scoring is volatile. So, it will not help the cause of Magnolia.

PREDICTION

I do not think it will be a walk in the park by Phoenix but the numbers are clearly siding with them. Magnolia though is well-tested in the playoffs and the difference in terms of playoff experience could turn out to be a big deal.

At the end of the day, I will trust the numbers and choose Phoenix to win this series.