PBA Trade Analysis: Alaska traded Manuel to Phoenix! Is it FAIR?

 

This offseason is really turning out to be one for the ages as Phoenix, decided to let go Calvin Abueva, but a week later, grabbed Vic Manuel.

So, the Muscle Man and the Beast reunion never happened.

Here was the trade:

PHOENIX received: Vic Manuel , #7 & #19 pick
ALASKA received: PHX 2021 1st round pick, #6 & #16 pick, Brian Heruela

The first thing that may confuse you is that 2021 1st. That is a first-round pick for the next draft after the one this March. In short, after this season.

Now, there are a lot of picks involve but it is actually easy to see what is happening here.

Vic Manuel was traded for a package of a 1st round pick, upgrade from #6 to #7, upgrade from #19 to #16, and Brian Heruela.

The main piece of the package is that 1st round pick. And I am really happy that it was sent to an independent team. For me. This indicates that Phoenix is serious about its contention because it was not sold to one of the conglomerates.

For me, that 1st round pick equates to around 60% of the value of a Vic Manuel. The Muscle Man was impressive in the PBA bubble but he is still a risky player to acquire because of father time and his injuries in the past.

The upgrades for me are just around 10%. Knowing that we have a very deep draft here with a lot of very high-level prospects, the fit of the prospect to the team could be a big deal in the first round. And we have a variety of high-level prospects. So, a step up in the first round is worth it. 

So, it boils down to Brian Heruela. Is he equitable to 30% of the value of a Vic Manuel? 

The answer is Yes. Heruela is a proven high-quality guard. When I say high quality, I am talking about guards that can be impactful even without the ball because their defense is fine and their shooting is good.

Overall, I see this as a fair trade.