I think the 2022 PBA Commissioner's Cup semifinals will end up as one of the most underrated semis in the history of the league.
Both series were only 4 games but both are actually close. Barangay Ginebra managed to find their guys on the right time to overcome Magnolia. Bay Area showed that they have the clutch genes to overcome their close encounters with San Miguel Beermen.
Now, we have a finals that can even take it to another level. So, which team will win?
X-FACTORS
Points in the Paint
Andrew Nicholson
Free-throw attempts
Knowing that Bay Area Dragons is the clear favorite and that my Filipino heritage is telling me that Barangay Ginebra should do everything to defend our honor, I actually checked the factors during the three defeats that Bay Area suffered.
The most glaring one is their points in the paint. In their two defeats against Meralco and Ginebra, Bay Area was dominated in scoring in the paint. While in their L against San Miguel, it was just a one point win for BAD. I think this is the biggest battle point. If Ginebra wants the victory, they need to win inside the paint.
In all the three defeats of Bay Area, Nicholson was actually their import. And in two of them, Nicholson was human. While on the other one, Andrew erupted for 50 points. In short, Ginebra should chose their poison. Let Nicholson win it for Bay or let his teammates get the task.
Lastly, is the most crucial one. Do you know that in their game against Ginebra, Bay Area only attempted three free-throws? I will not add any further explanation.
PREDICTION
Without bias, it still clear to me that Ginebra will have a hard time defending our turf. This is a seven game series and Bay Area has more size and deeper bench. Unless the last X Factor will be played out to a level that is already impossible, the better choice here is Bay Area.
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