The PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals will see the top-seeded NorthPort Batang Pier take on perennial contenders Barangay Ginebra San Miguel in what promises to be an intense best-of-seven series. While NorthPort is riding high after a surprising run to the No. 1 seed, Ginebra remains the logical favorite due to their championship pedigree and experience.
However, there’s a real possibility that NorthPort can strike first and take Game 1. The question is: how much of an advantage would that truly be?
A Favorable Opening for NorthPort
NorthPort is in a great position to capitalize on a potential Ginebra letdown in the series opener. The Gin Kings are coming off a grueling schedule, with several key players—including Justin Brownlee, Scottie Thompson, Japeth Aguilar, Jamie Malonzo, and Troy Rosario—returning from a demanding Gilas Pilipinas stint that saw them play five international games in a short span.
With Ginebra coach Tim Cone and his coaching staff also involved in the national team’s campaign, there’s a chance the Gin Kings could be fatigued or out of sync early in the series. This opens the door for NorthPort to take control early.
Additionally, NorthPort already proved they can compete with Ginebra, having defeated them in the elimination round, 119-116. With a long break to prepare and fresher legs, the Batang Pier could be primed for another upset in Game 1.
The Ginebra Factor: Experience and Adjustments
While NorthPort’s opportunity to win Game 1 is real, history has shown that Ginebra, under Tim Cone, is a master at adjusting as a series progresses.
NorthPort’s roster, outside of Arvin Tolentino and Paolo Taha, lacks deep playoff experience. On the other hand, Ginebra has multiple champions on their squad who have been through numerous wars. A single loss won’t rattle them, and if anything, it might even serve as motivation.
Cone’s ability to make in-game and series-long adjustments is unparalleled in the PBA, and he has often used early losses as learning opportunities. Even if Ginebra stumbles out of the gate, it would be premature to count them out.
Can NorthPort Sustain a Lead?
The real test for NorthPort is not whether they can win Game 1 but whether they can maintain a high level of play throughout the series. Winning a best-of-seven against Ginebra requires consistency and poise—qualities that only come with experience.
NorthPort’s stars, including Kadeem Jack, Joshua Munzon, and Tolentino, will have to prove they can deliver under pressure. More importantly, they need to maintain their energy and focus for the long haul, as Ginebra thrives in long series and has repeatedly shown its ability to wear down opponents.
Prediction: Ginebra’s Experience Will Prevail
While NorthPort has a great shot at stealing Game 1, Ginebra’s championship DNA and ability to adjust make them the logical bet to win the series. Cone’s track record in playoff basketball is too strong to ignore, and as soon as his team settles into the series, their advantages in experience, chemistry, and execution will likely shine through.
NorthPort is a dangerous underdog, but Ginebra remains the team to beat. If the Gin Kings can withstand an early punch from the Batang Pier, expect them to methodically take control and march to yet another Finals appearance.
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