(c) PBA Media Bureau
Ginebra and TNT took two different roads going into the 2017 Commissioner's Cup Semi-finals. Ginebra was a dominant force all throughout the elimination round and they finished their quarterfinals assignment in just one game.On the other hand, TNT did not find the right import right away before settling for a hulking one, Joshua Smith. They also made a trade for RR Garcia to adjust for the Gilas duties of their core players.
Before we go to the prediction proper, let us check first the accuracy of my "Deciding Factors" in my last game predictions.
San Miguel-Star Semis Game 1 (105-109)
1. Chris Ross (7 Points, 10 Rebounds, 15 Assists)
2. Rebounding (48 Rebs. VS 54 Rebs)
3. Bench Points (20 Pts. VS 33 Pts.)
Verdict: Accurate
Deciding Factors
1. Free-Throw Percentage
2. Assists
3. Japeth Aguilar
Yes, the accuracy from the free-throw line will be vital for game 1. TNT was the worst free-throw shooting team in the elimination round with 61.7%. That was so bad that the 2nd worst was 3.8% higher. TNT also commits the second most number of fouls on the elimination round.Those two numbers magnify the need to hit freebies.
Look out for their passing, too. In their game in the elimination round, Ginebra overwhelmed the Ka-Tropa on that department, 24-13, Accurate passing is one of the top weapons of Ginebra. They are leading the league in assist and assist percentage, which measures the percentage of shots made that was assisted.
TNT will be hard-pressed to stop the Kings from getting on their groove and start hitting the open man.
Prediction
I will go with Ginebra in this one. TNT is coming from a quarterfinal-series that made them look vulnerable. Smith will provide a different puzzle for coach Tim Cone but Greg Slaughter's return will also be a big one.
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