Meralco-Ginebra Game 3 Prediction: A Classic Game 3?

That game 2 was a heart-pumping elegant brand of basketball. It was a defensive game with both teams putting a hand on the face of every shot-taker. At the end though, Ginebra was able to make the shots and Meralco did not help themselves.

In this game 3 then, Meralco is in a must-win situation. I just can't think of any way that they can win four straight games against a team that has the size-advantage for a full-48 minutes of play.

KEY FACTORS
Greg Slaughter
Three-point shooting
Bench Production



In game 2, Greg only managed 3 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks and 4 turnovers in 33 minutes of play. Don't be fooled by that though, Ginebra outscored Meralco 18 points when he was on the court. His impact on both ends of the court is not really reliant on his own production.

If he is on the court, his team is just more confident. Their offense is just more fluid with a big body there, providing key screens. He also makes the right pass and can easily suck the defense to him. He just makes the life of his teammates, much easier. And on the defensive end? He doesn't need to be skillful to make an impact.

For Meralco, their biggest saving grace is their shooting from the outside. Unfortunately, they only managed to hit 13 out of the 57 tries. Actually, they have a lot of open looks. The shots are just not falling. And I think, that hurts their confidence too. The moment their long bombs start hitting, this could be a much closer series than anticipated.

With Greg Slaughter on the bench of Ginebra, it puts a lot of pressure on the bench of Meralco. Ranidel de Ocampo is their de facto counter to Greg but impact-wise, they are not match. Sol Mercado and Kevin Ferrer had been reliable on both ends of the court.

Meralco's bench should try to outplay the bench of Ginebra. Lanete and Tolomia should provide more than the 12.5 points per game that they average in the first two games.

PREDICTION

I expect a classic game 3. I just don't think the shooting of Meralco will continue to be that bad. I expect a bounce back from them with at least 12 long bombs. That will open up the lanes and put a lot of pressure on Greg and the frontline of Ginebra.

At the end though, the bench of Ginebra should be able to keep them on the game and the fatigue of the Bolts will hinder them from getting their first W of the series.