(c) PBA Media Bureau
With how close the 2018 Commissioner's Finals series, it is easy to say that it is scripted. The logic is simple, pushing it to game 7 will provide more exposure to the two franchises, namely San Miguel and Ginebra.
Game 7s always provide dramas that a lot of fans will remember a decade from now. Those happenings are the marketing gems that the franchises in the PBA are looking for.
But, if you check the numbers in the first five games, you will see that it is not scripted at all.
TURNOVERS
If you will script a game, turnover is the easiest to manipulate. It will provide lesser opportunities to the team that you want to lose and will provide more shots to the squad that you want to win.
In this series though, Ginebra has committed more turnovers in every game! Yes, even in their three victories they turned the ball over by 3.33 times more than San Miguel. With this consistency, there is no way that they are controlling the games.
REBOUNDING
Another consistent stats in the series is this. If they want to script the game, we should expect that the rebounding numbers will always favor the winning team because controlling the rebound is a huge factor in winning basketball.
But in this finals, San Miguel Beermen won the rebounding battle for all the five games that were already played. The Beermen have outrebounded the Kings by an average of 5.8 per game.
THIS IS NOT THE SERIES THAT SHOULD BE SCRIPTED
Other than the numbers, you can also analyze the storyline of the two squads that are facing-off.
Remember that Ginebra will try to get their 3rd straight Governors' Cup crown in the next conference.
San Miguel is trying to complete a grandslam, to solidify their current core as one of the greatest team ever assembled in the league.
Ginebra has more fans and they are of course clamoring for a championship. But, if Ginebra wins the crown, it will totally end an amazing plot that is brewing for the last conference.
Imagine if San Miguel wins the 2018 Com. Cup and they face-off again with Ginebra in the 2018 Governors' Cup finals. That will provide us with one of the rarest championship stories. A grandslam seeking team against the three-peat dreaming franchise!
That kind of story may never happen again in the history of the league.
On the other hand, a win by Ginebra here is another great David versus Goliath conquest by the most beloved franchise of the league. "David" is well-represented by Justin Brownlee who is way more undersize that his import counterparts.
Overall, SMC will win no matter what the result will be. So, what is the point of scripting it?
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