2025 PBA Commissioner’s Cup Finals Prediction: Ginebra Over TNT in a Tight Series
The 2025 PBA Commissioner’s Cup Finals presents another thrilling chapter in the growing rivalry between Barangay Ginebra and TNT Tropang Giga. This is their third Finals meeting in two years, with TNT winning the previous two encounters thanks to the dominant play of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (RHJ). But as much as TNT has had Ginebra’s number, this upcoming series feels different.
Deciding which team has the upper hand is extremely difficult. TNT remains a powerhouse, but two major concerns cast doubt on their ability to defend their title:
- The injury to Jayson Castro – The loss of "The Blur" for the entire year is a massive blow, stripping TNT of their most clutch and experienced local.
- The impact of Ramadan on RHJ – While Hollis-Jefferson has managed his fasting and playing schedule before, the intensity of a grueling seven-game series could take its toll on his performance.
These factors could be the difference in what promises to be a tight, hard-fought Finals. And because of them, we’re predicting Ginebra to win the series and reclaim the Commissioner’s Cup.
TNT’s Strengths and Challenges
TNT is coming off a dominant run in the playoffs, finishing off Rain or Shine in five games. RHJ has been his usual self, averaging 28.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.2 blocks in the semis.
However, the Tropang Giga will feel the absence of Jayson Castro, a vital leader and playmaker. Castro’s ability to hit big shots and control the game in crunch time has been a key factor in TNT’s previous Finals wins over Ginebra. Without him, the team will lean heavily on Mikey Williams and Calvin Oftana to fill the gap.
Then there’s RHJ’s Ramadan fasting. While he has broken his fast on game days before, the physical toll of playing 40+ minutes per night over a long series could affect his effectiveness in the later games. If Ginebra can extend this series deep, RHJ’s stamina might become a problem.
Why Ginebra Can Finally Flip the Script
Ginebra enters the Finals with a much-improved roster compared to the last two times they faced TNT in a championship series.
- Justin Brownlee is hungry for revenge after losing the last two Finals against TNT. His big-game experience and all-around play will be crucial.
- Jamie Malonzo is back and playing some of his best basketball. His athleticism, defense, and outside shooting make him a game-changer.
- Troy Rosario adds depth and versatility, giving Ginebra more options to counter TNT’s frontcourt.
Malonzo’s return cannot be overstated. He was sidelined in the previous Finals and has made it clear that he is eager to make a difference this time around. His ability to guard multiple positions and knock down open shots will give Ginebra an edge.
Additionally, Ginebra’s chemistry is peaking at the right time, with Brownlee, Malonzo, and Scottie Thompson forming a dangerous core. They breezed through the semis in just five games, showing that they are playing their best basketball heading into the Finals.
Final Prediction: Ginebra in 6 or 7 Games
Expect this to be a grueling, tightly contested series. TNT still has the firepower to push this to six or seven games, but without Castro and with RHJ’s Ramadan factor, the advantage shifts to Ginebra.
Ginebra has the depth, defensive versatility, and motivation to finally break their losing streak against TNT in the Finals. Brownlee, Malonzo, and Thompson will step up, and ultimately, Ginebra will win the 2025 Commissioner’s Cup.
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